Proposed Extension of Conscription to 1 Year Sufficient？Experts Say Cannot Train Qualified Fighters, Soldiers, Retired General：Inferior to Singapore
The Storm Media, November 20, 2022
With tensions mounting in the Taiwan Strait, people are concerned whether the time of mandatory military service will be restored to one year. On November 19, the Fair Winds Foundation held a Breakthrough Forum entitled “The Impacts of Proposed Changes to the Military Service System: How Long Will the Young People Serve? How Will the Military Prepare for War?” The forum featured experts and scholars to discuss the possibilities and impacts of extending military service time. When asked by participants whether Taiwan can win a war against Singapore or South Korea, whose military capability is comparable to that of Taiwan, retired Army Major General Wang Meng-kang answered that frankly Taiwan cannot beat Singapore.
Yu Tsung-chi, former dean of College of Political Warfare of the National Defense University, indicated that from 1997 to the present, military service time has been shortened from three years to two years, to one year, then to 10 months, and to the current four-month military training service. Four major factors affect the military service: Russia-Ukraine war, cross-strait relations after Chinese Communist Party’s 20th Party Congress, Taiwan’s public opinion, and Taiwan’s needs for the development of military building.
Taiwan’s Military needs 50,000 to 70,000 More Personnel, Expert: Consider All-Gender Military Service
According to Mr. Yu, judging from the future cross-strait military situation, Taiwan’s military needs to increase by 50,000 to 70,000 persons to a total force size of 260,000, so it is necessary to extend military service time. There are four important points: adjustment, flexibility, refinement, and benefits package. They include the conscription of both males and females; one-year military service with multiple methods; refining the military training to increase asymmetric combat capabilities; and increasing benefits so young people will be willing to serve in the military.
Mr. Yu mentioned that to solve the problem of sources of troops, other measures could include mobilizing females in education recall, or following the American case by allowing foreigners to serve in the military and granting them permanent residence status. He said that such policies could solve the burning needs of the shortage of military personnel.
According to Chieh Chung, researcher at the Association of Strategic Foresight, in the future, reservist force will be necessary to defend Taiwan, and the extension of service time is absolutely helpful to the reservist force. But we should consider all realistic conditions and not extend the service time just for the sake of extension. To estimate from the current number of soldiers, if the service time is extended to one year, 5 to 11 additional infantry brigades for coastal defense are needed to receive the conscripts of the extended military service.
Chieh: Two Years Necessary to Train Qualified Soldiers, basic Level Cadres Insufficient
Mr. Chieh indicated that even if the service time is extended to one year, a new conscript cannot become a qualified warrior because it takes two years to train a qualified soldier. Furthermore, the vast majority of the conscripts will serve in the infantry to defend the coastal lines, but the capacities of the training bases are saturated and the training centers for specific classes are insufficient and cannot be expanded, so if the ground troops are doubled, there will be no place to train them, this is why the Ministry of National Defense dares not implement education recalls for females.
Mr. Chieh questioned who will manage and train the new conscripts. He said because cadres at the basic level are insufficient, if the ground troops are doubled, where will the basic level cadres come from? Mr. Chieh thought under the current condition, it is not necessary to extend the service time to one year just for the sake of extension, the training of conscripts can consider different categories, and more serious problems exist in reservist force than extending the service time.
Mr. Wang Meng-kang indicated that if the conscripts cannot eliminate enemies in the battlefield, then the service time needs to be considered. To take the requirements of mechanized infantry brigades as an example, a conscript can qualify as a rifleman if he can throw hand grenades after basic training. Ideally it takes 55 weeks from basic training to joint operations training, so that an infantry brigade with effective combating capability can be formed to fight a war together with other branches of the military.
Benefits for Military Personnel Poor, Retention Rates Low
Mr. Wang emphasized that infantry requires the least combat skills training among all combat branches, and it takes 55 weeks. Other classes or branches of the military require more skills. He said that for miscellaneous duties, conscripts may serve as guards, doing maintenance of equipment, or cleaning the environment and leaving voluntary service personnel to receive full-time combat skills training.
Mr. Wang stated frankly that the retention rate for the voluntary service personnel is very low. They do not want to remain in the military because the benefits package is too poor. And it is almost impossible to recruit new soldiers. Mr. Yu added that soldiers also need appropriate honors. Besides increasing their salaries, the government could consider giving soldiers more dignity, such as granting soldiers the priority in boarding airplanes or ships. Excessive interferences should be avoided. To contrast Taiwan’s military as the cheap labor, Japan prohibits its military personnel to help clean silts, for it would damage the image of the military.
When asked that after the reform in military service, whether Taiwan’s military can win in a war against China, Singapore, or South Korea, Mr. Yu replied that if war broke out between Taiwan and China, Taiwan should not seek victory but make sure that the adversary will not achieve its goal by military actions. Mr. Wang, who had experience in joint military exercises with Singapore, answered frankly that Taiwan cannot beat Singapore. Taiwan’s military equipment is not comparable to that of Singapore, and Singapore’s reservists under education recall perform even better than Taiwan’s active-duty military personnel.